Rick Santorum is leading in two of three states voting Tuesday, according to Public Policy Polling, putting him in position to reclaim the mantle as the leading conservative alternative to Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential nomination fight.
In Missouri, a non-binding primary where Newt Gingrich isn't on the ballot, Santorum is leading with 45 percent of the vote to Romney' 32 percent and Ron Paul is at 19 percent. In Minnesota, Santorum is at 33 percent, with Romney at 24 percent, Gingrich close behind at 22 percent and Paul at 20 percent. The only state voting tomorrow where Romney leads is Colorado, where he's at 37 percent, Satorum is at 27 percent, Ginrgrich is at 21 percent and Paul is at 13 percent.
The survey found that Santorum is being aided by sky high approval ratings above 70 percent in each state.
Also, PPP's Tom Jensen writes in a blog post:
There are three groups Santorum's winning in all three of these states: Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' Those were groups that had previously been in Gingrich's column, but it appears right leaning Republican voters are shifting toward Santorum as their primary alternative to Romney. If Santorum does pick up 2 wins and a 2nd place finish tomorrow that trend is likely to be accelerated.
Jensen notes that working in Romney's favor is the fact that his supporters are the most firmly committed to him and about third or more of voters in each state say they're undivided. Given Romney's superior money and organizational edge, it's still possible he can have a big night tomorrow. But if these numbers hold, Santorum could supplant Gingrich as the top choice of conservatives who aren't satisfied with Romney as the frontrunner. And as I wrote yesterday, this could complicate matters for Romney.
