Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., seen as the frontrunner in Iowa just weeks ago, is showing signs of fading as we approach tomorrow's caucuses, according to a new poll, though he's still locked in what's essentially a three-way tie with a surging Rick Santorum and steady Mitt Romney.
The survey, by Public Policy Polling, does give Paul the slight edge -- 20 percent, to 19 percent for Romney and 18 percent for Santorum. But the key is momentum -- Santorum is up eight points since a survey taken a week earlier and enjoys, by far, the best favorability rating among any of the candidates (60/30). By contrast, the poll found "a precipitous drop in (Paul's) favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that's gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51)." This suggests the negative scrutiny he's started to recieve over the past few weeks may be taking a toll. Also, as I noted yesterday, I've been picking up among some Iowans a fear that if Paul wins, it will render the caucuses irrelevant in the future.
Also working against Paul is that he's strong among groups who aren't traditionally GOP caucus-goers -- Democrats and Independents, younger voters and those who have never participated in a caucus before.
That said, Paul does have a lot of passionate supporters and a strong orginization, and with a race this close, it'll all come down to turnout.
