Republican businessman Bob Turner has pulled off a huge upset win in the race to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, in a contest that became a referendum on President Obama's failed leadership in general, and his hostile stance toward Israel in particular.
Obama won the area with 55 percent of the vote in 2008, and Democrats hold a 3-to-1 registration edge in the district, yet as of this writing, Turner held a comfortable 53 percent to 47 percent lead, enough for the Associated Press to declare him the winner.
As with all special elections, there are always unique circumstances, but in this case even the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling concluded after conducting a survey leading up to the election that, "If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him."
And the survey also found:
The issue of Israel does appear to be having a major impact on this race. A plurality of voters- 37%- said that Israel was 'very important' in determining their votes. Turner is winning those folks by an amazing 71-22 margin. With everyone who doesn't say Israel is a very important issue for them Weprin actually leads 52-36. Turner is in fact winning the Jewish vote by a 56-39 margin, very unusual for a Republican candidate. This seems to be rooted in deep unhappiness with Obama on this issue- only 30% of voters overall approve of how he's handling Israel to 54% who disapprove and with Jewish voters his approval on Israel is 22% with 68 of voters disapproving. That has a lot to do with why Turner's in such a strong position.
Though this is just a special election in a seat that's going to disappear as a result of the redrawing of the Congressional map, it is sure to have immediate political ramifications. For one thing, it undercuts Obama's jobs pitch and his vow to travel to every corner of the country to sell his plan. If he's a political liability even in a Democratic district in New York City, it's hard to see him having much sway over Congress, especially the Republican controlled House. In addition, it could also increase pressure on Obama to return to America's traditional treatment of Israel as an ally, especially with an important vote looming before the United Nations next week in which Palesntinians are seeking to unilaterally declare statehood without agreeing to peace with Israel.
