January 31, 2012 6:46pm ? Comments
byPhilip Klein Senior Editorial Writer
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There's a kind of myth floating around that Newt Gingrich won South Carolina because it's a more conservative state, while elecatbility is a bigger factor in the more moderate Florida, favoring Mitt Romney. But in reality, voters in both states placed nearly identical importance on various candidate qualities, according to exit polls. Any difference in the results will have to do with how the candidates performed among the various subsets of voters, not because the composition of the electorate was wildly different in terms of what they were seeking in a candidate.

In Florida, CBS reports, "45 percent said the most important candidate quality is that they could defeat President Obama. That was followed by having the right experience (20 percent), having strong character (17 percent) and being a true conservative (13 percent)."

This closely matched South Carolina, where 45 percent of voters cited electability, 21 percent cited the right experience, 18 percent cited character and 14 percent cited being a true conservative. Gingrich beat Romney among every group other than character.

So, if Romney wins in Florida as expected, it will be because he convinced voters he was more electable and had better experience, not because the electorate placed less emphasis on conservatism than South Carolina.