POLK CITY, Iowa -- When I arrived at the Reising Sun Cafe here for a morning Rick Santorum event, a crowd was huddled outside, because nobody else could physically squeeze inside to actually hear him speak. Eventually, people sought warmth at a gift shop next door.
Those following the Iowa caucuses from home, hearing a steady stream of reports such as this about "packed rooms" that are "standing room only" with people still waiting outside, may be getting the impression that there's a groundswell of enthusiasm for this year's candidates that will drive turnout for the caucuses to stratospheric levels.
But don't be fooled. The truth is that the venues candidates are holding events at this year are much smaller than in 2008, back when some candidates were filling large ballrooms or even small arenas. When going into a Barack Obama event in 2008, it wouldn't be unusual have to get there early and still park a five or 10 minute walk away from the actual rally site, only to come into a massive venue where crowds in the thousands were going wild. Even on the Republican side, Mike Huckabee was filling larger venues.
Yet yesterday, reporters, photograhers and a few actual patrons were packed into a tiny diner at a Mitt Romney event in Atlantic, Iowa. True, later that evening, he attracted hundreds to a town hall-style building in Council Bluffs, but it was still a relatively small venue.
On Saturday, Newt Gingrich squeezed people into a diner in Council Bluffs and a small corner of a Coca Cola bottling factory in Atlantic.
At the same time, the audiences seem a lot more subdued than in 2008 -- less shouting and sign waving.
This, is of course, unscientific, and based solely on my impressions covering both caucuses. This may not be used as a predictor of turnout. Keep in mind that more GOP candidates are contesting Iowa this time, so overall turnout may be higher, even if no single candidate matches the over 40,000 votes Huckabee won in 2008. But the point is, people should take reports of overcrowded venues in Iowa with a grain of salt, because the venues aren't all that big.
